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The provisions and mechanisms of the NPT (the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Nuclear Suppliers Group, and the 1997 Additional Protocol) have proven inadequate for this challenge, because the NPT does not ban development of dual-purpose technology and accumulation of critical materials for peaceful purposes. This situation threatens the nuclear-weapons nonproliferation institutions and regime, particularly because many provisions need to be adapted to today’s situation, which has not been done.
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In this scenario for the Middle East, which is the logical extension of current trends, there could be increasing fragmentation and decreasing state authority in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq—the territories that Sykes-Picot divided between British and French interests at the time of the First World War—and increasing Sunni-Shia rivalry. A difficult global economic outlook that suppresses oil demand would exacerbate fragmentation and conflict. In this scenario, Syria disintegrates into a “soft partition,” in which enclaves are independent of control from Damascus. The Bashar al-Assad regime would not finish off the rebels. Islamist militias fight each other, and fight moderate rebels and Kurds for control over villages and towns, mainly in the north and east of Syria. Moderate Sunni rebels may be able to wrest control over south Syria. There would be no reason for the Syrian refugees to return. By 2035, conflict may no longer rage, but Syria would have been a fractured and failed state for two decades. Its main export, to other parts of the region and the rest of the world, would be violence and terrorism.
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The high fertility rates will have an explosive effect on countries’ populations, especially those in the Middle East and South Asia. If current fertility trends persist, countries like Afghanistan and Yemen will see a doubling of their populations between 2005 and 2030, and a tripling by 2050. Pakistan’s population—part of which is beginning to age—will nevertheless see a 50 percent increase, reaching 240 million by 2030, which will make it the world’s fifth-most-populous country. Saudi Arabia—which is also beginning to age—will have a 58 percent increase to twenty-seven million between 2005 and 2030. Overall, the Middle East will add roughly 290 million people in the 2005-30 period.
Growing urbanization may be another feature, adding to the power diffusion in the base scenario, even while moderating any bipolar divisions in the second and third scenarios above. As in previous eras, cities are the focus of technological development and a source of economic growth. Youths are attracted to cities because of the economic opportunities they offer.
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War, especially if the United States gets involved on Israel’s side, would risk destabilizing nuclear Pakistan and setting off a rapid upsurge in Islamic radicalism around the world. Such a war could also push the Arab and Muslim countries into an en-masse departure from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Some of these countries might accelerate their own military nuclear programs in order to acquire a nuclear-deterrent capability against the United States and Israel. This would irreversibly undermine the legal foundations of the nuclear nonproliferation regime.
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Technological growth would be purely beneficial. Silicon Valley’s brain trust has operated under the assumption that, if left alone, technology would solve all of the world’s problems. However, in the short term, automation has eliminated—rather than created—more jobs. Authoritarians have been able to use social media for better citizen surveillance. Revolutions in biotech could be a time bomb if left unaddressed.
North Korea, which set the example of developing nuclear weapons under the cover of pursuing nuclear energy, has been followed by Iran. During the next twenty years, other countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America could also take this road. Many of these countries are characterized by internal instability and/or are involved in regional conflicts.
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The “End of History” hope that all ideological wars had been won by the West was misplaced. Jihadism is worldwide and is proving attractive to marginalized youths, including women. Authoritarianism is staging a comeback, and state capitalism is now an alternative to laissez-faire liberal capitalism. Citizenship is being supplanted by self/group identity.
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The emerging technologies are only at the cusp of their development; the new discoveries and knowledge cannot be reversed. But the political and social responses to the new technological developments are not as linear as once thought. In the early days of globalization and technological breakthroughs, the thinking was that each would reinforce each other. Two decades later, it is becoming evident that that is not true anymore. The earlier World Wide Web could be broken up. China’s firewall is maybe the first indication of that segmentation. The Atlantic Council’s Cyber Statecraft Initiative has examined four possible futures for the Internet, several of which radically differ from the vision the founders had for an open and bottom-up vehicle for enlightenment and individual enrichment.
If—with the help of Russia, the United States, and China—nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan is avoided, these countries could conclude a nuclear-arms limitation treaty during the 2020s. As part of efforts to stabilize the situation in the Middle East and strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime (especially pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program), by 2035, Israel could do away with operationally deployed nuclear weapons (following the South African example). By 2035, North Korea’s political and economic system will most likely go through changes that will result in Pyongyang fully renouncing nuclear weapons.
On the other hand, there is no doubt that China has made strides. Back in 2021, during the creation of Global Trends 2030, the authors surveyed Western scientists about China’s progress.
How likely is a Sino-US conflict by 2035? There is increasing risk, unless there is an effort to develop a more inclusive mechanism for resolving differences and curbing any escalation in tensions. Again, it will probably be up to US and Chinese leaders to see the risks in the status quo and move toward security cooperation. A Cold War in Asia would not be easily contained, and it would completely undermine globalization and prospects for a more peaceful and prosperous world.
There are various ways to catalog the likeliest breakthroughs. In 2021, McKinsey Global Institute named twelve technologies which will have the biggest economic impact. They overlapped with the four technology arenas—information technologies, automation and manufacturing technologies, resource technologies, and health technologies—described and analyzed in Global Trends 2030. It is hard to anticipate the exact date of these breakthroughs. More and more depends on other factors, such as regulatory changes and greater public acceptance. In recent years, technologies in self-driving cars have been perfected, but public skepticism and legal impediments still stand in the way of their large-scale use. In its study, McKinsey Global Institute warned of the “cultural resistance or political opposition” to the development and deployment of its list of disruptive technologies, despite the long-term economic benefits.
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If comprehensive agreement on the Iran nuclear issue is successfully implemented, this would pave the way to broad new opportunities for strengthening the nuclear nonproliferation regime and controls over critical technology and materials, through cooperation between the major powers and regional players. Universalization of some principles and norms of the comprehensive agreement would greatly enhance the NPT and its regimes and institutions. At the same time, lifting the embargo and restoring relations between the West and Iran would reduce Russia’s influence in the region and open the way for Iran to export its hydrocarbons to the world market. This would result in lower long-term global oil and gas prices, and offer the European Union alternative sources of energy imports. Such developments would have detrimental consequences for Russia’s economy.
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However, middle-income countries will soon face many of the same demands for increased government healthcare spending as high-income countries. The share of healthcare spending in upper-middle-income countries will slowly decline, because of government inability to keep up with increasing demand. Upper-middle-income countries will also face pressures to increase public-pension spending. The need for pension spending as a share of GDP will increase by close to 5 percentage points by 2035.
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An alternative scenario would center on ending the violence in Syria and Iraq and building up regional cooperation as necessary prerequisites for economic development and down-the-road political stability. Without peace and regional cooperation, economic-development efforts risk failure. It is also premised on the belief that the region will not be able to achieve regional cooperation without outside help. The sources of instability are so deeply imbedded that, without some nudges and oversight, it is unlikely that the region can be put on course for cooperation and growth.
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While aging will become the predominant demographic trend, the number of countries—fifty—with a median age of twenty-five years or less will remain relatively large, though down from more than eighty such countries in 2021. Such youthful countries tend to have an oversized impact on foreign affairs because of the high correlation between youth bulges and the propensity for conflict, either inside or between countries. Since the 1970s, “roughly 80 percent of all armed civil and ethnic conflicts” started in countries with youth bulges Many of the countries with large youth bulges also figure high on state-fragility lists, and are unfortunately located in areas where climate-change impacts will be the greatest and food and water scarcities are a growing threat.
For the rest of the world, an unstable Middle East is a growing threat, exporting terrorism and ethnic and religious division. Other regions where conflict might spread include Central and Southeast Asia, as well as equatorial Africa, where a growing number of countries could be drawn into conflict between Muslim and Christian populations. If major states are unable to act together to stop such wars, they might be drawn into them.
Equally important has been the growth of regionalized conflict, especially in the Middle East, which also threatens global peace and security. There, the decades-long unravelling of the economic and social fabric of countries such as Egypt, Syria, Libya, Yemen, and Iraq has played an instrumental role in the rise of civil strife. For various reasons, governments in those countries could no longer provide the needed economic opportunities for growing youth populations. The increasing importance of ethnic and religious identity has helped ignite internecine conflicts. The end of Tehran’s isolation has raised Arab fears about growing Iranian and Shia influence. The Syrian conflict was internationalized with the participation of actors from around and outside the region. The rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) introduced a new factor—a nonstate group growing so powerful that it has been able to aspire to statehood and, indeed, to the renewal of the old caliphate. The sources of economic and political instability for the region are unlikely to end soon. Civil conflicts tend to last six to nine years, and have a high potential for reigniting. The likely end of high oil prices is a further challenge, forcing Saudi Arabia and other oil producers to find alternative sources of economic growth and state revenue.
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In view of zero-sum water resources and spiraling consumer needs, one wonders why more is not being done. Much of the above reiterates worrying trends highlighted four years ago in Global Trends 2030. The author’s belief, shared by an increasing number of experts, is that the notion of climate security must be more firmly embedded in the national-security agendas of the United States and other countries. The fact that the greatest scarcity threats are likely to be in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia is no excuse. As shown by the Syrian civil war, drought is an important instigating factor in conflict. The Syrian civil war has increased the terrorist threat to the West. There were many factors in the outbreak, but the multiyear drought increased the chances. Nations need to understand more clearly the ties between resource scarcity and conflict, but also need a concerted US and international plan to deal with food and water scarcity. Additionally, where the problems are flooding and coastal surge, all need to think about preventive measures, but also the rights and responsibilities of outside actors concerning environmental migrants. Migration often tends to be seen in national-sovereignty terms, and there are few international conventions dealing with reception due to environmental migrants.
If China embarks on military and political expansion in the western Pacific Ocean, and then in the Indian Ocean, a new bipolarity would develop. A loose coalition would be formed centered on China, including Russia, some Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) members, North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and—depending on the circumstances—Turkey, facing an alliance centered on the United States as the core, with US allies in Europe and Asia surrounding it.
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To what degree China becomes innovative, without politically reforming, will be a critical test of the importance of traditional Western liberal values for prosperity and progress. So far, China has shown its ability to do very nicely without, but whether China achieves its goal of being an innovative society will be conclusive proof of the proposition, one way or another.
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Four years later, much of the same story still pertains. The World Bank recently produced a report that emphasized the importance of water as a framework for thinking about the complex scarcities problem, and as a potential key for unlocking a long-term solution. In the absence of “significant increases in water efficiency,” particularly in the agricultural sector, the World Bank estimated that demand would exceed current sustainable water supplies by a whopping 40 percent in as little as fifteen years. Water is a finite resource and is already in short supply in many regions, particularly those with fast-growing populations. With climate change, the finite resource turns into one with less reliability and more variability—both spatially and temporally—in supply. However, once a system for ensuring adequate water supplies can be put in place, then problems such as low agriculture productivity can begin to be tackled. Obviously, there is also the problem of too much water—with the prevalence of extreme weather and storm surges, some low-lying places are increasingly flooded. Solving that problem is also necessary.
Everyone knows what happens next: Sunni-Shia powers are drawn into an open, all-out conflict. It is perhaps a logical extension of the disappointing results of reform and social unravelling. It would have huge global political and economic repercussions, amounting to a worst-case scenario for the region and the world. However, a war on the scale of full regional conflict is not inevitable, even if the likely cycle of continuing strife and authoritarianism prevails. The limited risk, however, should be enough to prompt the United States, Europe, Russia, China, and others to think about ways to make sure the slide to all-out conflict does not happen, which points to another and more positive scenario.
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The continuing instability in Iraq and Syria would reinforce authoritarianism elsewhere, hampering reform. Initially, Saudi and other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies make progress in starting to get more nationals into private-sector jobs. Increasingly, more women participate in the workforce, but good job opportunities remain limited. The available new jobs are in the service sector and comparably low paid. After a decade of relatively low oil prices and modest non-oil sector growth, the Gulf governments must drastically cut social-welfare programs and subsidies. They begin introducing value-added taxes (VAT) to make up for dwindling state revenues. After a decade of cutbacks, living standards for most Saudi and other GCC households continue to drop, and opposition groups begin to grow. In the face of that opposition, conservatives throw out the reformers in the governments, reasserting rigorous authoritarian rule and religious orthodoxy. The specter of continuing instability elsewhere, and middle-class fears of its spread to the Gulf, bolsters the conservatives.
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Focusing only on these particular price and wage series gives policy makers, citizens and workers an incomplete picture because the choice of price deflator makes a big difference. Most economists believe that the CPI includes upward biases which compound significantly over time. Overstating price growth mechanically implies understating real wage growth.
Steer toward more positive outcomes. The original intent of the Global Trends series was to encourage policymakers not to dwell on the current crisis, but to take actions that would help avoid future ones. The innumerable surprises and deceptions over the past decade show the degree to which past planning has been inadequate, pointing to the need to develop better mechanisms for focusing on the medium-to-long term.
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As emerging technologies come online, the lack of a truly global institutional framework could be particularly dangerous. Assuring the future security of the Internet is particularly important in this regard, because all the new emerging technologies—bio, 3D printing, robotics, big data—take for granted a secure, global Internet. Everyone loses if cyber crime and cyber terrorism undermine the Internet. In the worst-case scenarios, in which cyber crime proliferates or strong national borders fragment the Internet, an Atlantic Council study, as mentioned, found that the economic costs could be as much as trillion out to 2030, in addition to the risk of open conflict.
Maybe because there was such a push toward democratization in the wake of Cold War’s end and the fall of communism, the transition periods for anocracies or semi-democracies to mature into full democracies has been lengthening, particularly for those countries with little previous experience with democratic governance. In the decade following the end of the Cold War (1990-99), there were approximately 3/2 democratic transitions per year. From 2000-12, however, that number fell to just 1/8 per year.
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Conflict could also occur if Pakistan’s domestic political situation flared up, or if Islamic radicals (such as the Taliban) or international terrorists (such as al-Qaeda) obtained nuclear weapons. The Pakistanis fear that India would provoke political chaos if it used force to settle the Kashmir issue.
More and more, the talk among Western elites is about locking in as much as possible the status quo, which favors the West, so that it will be harder for the newcomers to overcome. The TPP was sold as a way to set the rules before China gains much more power.
Fragmented World is the base-case scenario, linearly projecting the current trajectory. In this scenario, globalization would slow appreciably, but not die. The author would expect that TPP and the TTIP would not be passed. Protectionist forces would strengthen, but not dominate. There would be little forward movement on free trade, but limited backsliding. The one area where protectionist forces would prevail is on immigration policy. Borders along the EU’s outside perimeter would harden. There would be no repeat of German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s open asylum policy. After two years of negotiations, there would be a soft Brexit deal, allowing the UK access to the single market. However, the UK would have to adhere to the EU rules—except those regarding free movement, for which the UK would set its own policies.
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The proliferation of lethal technologies is a potential nightmare for the Middle East, particularly in those countries where there are multiple terrorist and insurgency groups. Imagine Hamas or Hezbollah with highly accurate missiles at their disposal. Even the United States could be threatened. The proliferation of long-range precision weapons and antiship missile systems could pose problems to forward-deployed forces. Third parties might be discouraged from cooperating against such terrorist groups because they fear becoming a victim of precision weapons with greater lethal consequences. More accurate weapons could lead attackers to become overconfident in their military capabilities, and therefore more apt to employ such systems. In addition, precision weapons might give attackers a false sense of their abilities to tailor attacks to create specific, narrow effects.
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Many governments—especially European ones—have put restrictions on GMO use or the sale of GMO products, because of safety reservations and customer aversion. Precision agriculture—which could be used to help boost productivity in African agriculture and elsewhere—requires major upfront investment that is beyond the means of small farmers. Micro-irrigation—needed in areas of increasing water scarcity—is also too expensive for most developing countries, despite the need. As the costs of DNA sequencing come down, personalized medicine is likely to spread, but primarily for the well-to-do who can afford the relatively expensive diagnostic tests. Many developing countries lack sufficient doctors and health services needed for personalized medicine. By 2035, however, human-augmentation breakthroughs—such as fully functional limb replacements, enhanced eyesight, and hearing augmentations—will be more widely available.
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Given the record of slower growth and labor-force decline since the 2008 financial crisis, the likelihood of the second scenario is increasing. That scenario anticipated lower growth rates—which accelerated declines in average living standards—making it harder to continue trade-liberalization efforts.
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Other regions where conflict might spread include Central and Southeast Asia, and also equatorial Africa, where a growing number of countries could be drawn into conflict between Muslim and Christian populations. If the major powers are unable to act together to stop such wars, they might be drawn into them on opposing sides.
Europe and Asia currently host nearly two-thirds of all immigrants; in 2021, there were seventy-two million immigrants in Europe and almost an equal number in Asia. North America hosted the third-largest number (fifty-three million), followed by Africa (nineteen million) and Latin America (nine million). The United States has by far the largest number of immigrants: forty-six million reside in the United States, equal to nearly 20 percent of the world’s total. The Russian Federation hosts the second-largest number—eleven million—followed by Germany (ten million), Saudi Arabia (nine million), and the United Arab Emirates and United Kingdom (eight million each).
Terrorists are now focused on causing mass casualties, but this could change as they understand the scope of the disruptions that can be caused by cyber warfare. Other emerging technologies, such as synthetic biology, in the hands of terrorists could cause significant loss of life, in addition to ecological and agricultural damage. Bioterrorism is no longer a rare incident or remote possibility. The tools needed to sequence, synthesize, manipulate, assemble, and transmit DNA are increasingly accessible to non-experts. Amateurs in one place designing a genetic sequence on a computer can send a code to a 3D printer in another location. In 2021, scientists in the United States and the Netherlands sought to create a deadly influenza that would be transmissible between mammals.
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The optimistic school, which includes Bill Gates, points to the lag in the measurable effects from ongoing innovation. It takes time before innovations are absorbed into the broader economy. This is the reason why any effects from the emerging robotics, advanced automation, and artificial intelligence technologies have not been seen yet. Wait a while—at least five to seven years—before counting out the productivity gains from the new technologies.
Much of the distress the world has experienced during the last five to ten years has been due to mistaken ideas about what was supposed to happen. With these notions now shaken, it is worthwhile to start by looking back twenty or so years before projecting ahead to 2035. In the 1990s, the United States and the West were enjoying the benefits of the end of the Cold War and the initial burst of globalization. Certainly, the Yugoslav breakup clouded the mid-1990s, but most assumed things were still on track toward a more peaceful, prosperous, and secure future, in which the rest of the world would catch up to and model itself on the West.
Because Global Trends and its methodology is so well-known, this paper will draw on Global Trends 2030’s categorization of megatrends, gamechangers, and scenarios. For the most part, policymakers found that framework useful for helping them think about the future. Where necessary in this study, the author has updated the findings in Global Trends 2030, augmenting them with more recent research and greater understanding of the potential futures out to 2035. But, the author has decided to organize this work differently, given the acceleration of many of the more negative trends. Part I groups together the internal megatrends and potential gamechangers that increase the domestic political, economic, and social dislocations and crises out to 2035. Part II focuses on the megatrends and potential gamechangers that are breaking down the Western-dominated global order. Throughout, this report does not ignore that the current workings of internal and external crises could have long-term positive yields. The world has come to the brink before, and out of it has come order and stability. The title—The Search for a New Normal—is indicative of the author’s view that the world is in a difficult transition, and both positive and negative outcomes are possible. Part III explores where the current megatrends and gamechangers could lead out to 2035.
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Another threat to international stability comes from within the United States and the West, which are responsible for establishing the current global order. As advanced economies, the United States and its NATO allies are seeing the foundations of their societies begin to buckle under pressure from technological change and more economic competition from the rest of the world. Most US and European citizens have grown up expecting governments to provide economic opportunity, or at least a substantial social safety net. For the first time, a plurality of Americans and Europeans believe their children will not have the opportunities they had. Polling shows that some are even beginning to doubt the merits of democracy. In Europe, discontent has increasingly turned into opposition to the European Union. Western pessimism stands in stark contrast to public sentiment in many parts of the developing world, which is very optimistic about the future. Many Americans say they do not want isolationism, but nevertheless believe the United States can no longer be the world’s policeman and needs to tend to problems at home. A growing number of Americans and Europeans want to close the gates to Middle Eastern and African refugees, even though migrants have been a source of new jobs and entrepreneurship.
Political and economic measures can make a critical difference in terms of whether people all end up poorer and more unstable, or able to fully enjoy the benefits of growing longevity. With the aging process in full swing, high-income countries face a particularly difficult task of raising retirement ages, implementing efficiencies in healthcare, and reforming pension systems if they are to avert an economic slowdown. Middle-income countries have more time, but the accelerating aging process means they need to move quickly to align pension schemes to increasing longevity, and to build efficient healthcare systems. They have a big opportunity to close the education gap with high-income countries, boosting their productivity levels and attractiveness to foreign investment. Low-income countries need to bring down fertility quickly and increase educational standards if they are to maximize their advantages during the demographic bonus years.
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The other potential scenario is that of armed conflict in response to attempts by Beijing to settle the Taiwan issue through force. If such a scenario occurred, neutral countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia, and other Southeast Asian countries that have territorial disputes with China, would be alarmed about their security.
The growing economic crisis in the Gulf would encourage the Shia communities to ramp up opposition to Sunni monarchs. The eastern provinces of Saudi Arabia, where the Shia are in the majority, stage a rebellion. Bahrain becomes the arena of an escalating conflict between the Shia majority and the Sunni monarchy, which oscillates between appeasement and repression. Saudi Arabia and the UAE reinforce their garrisons in Bahrain as the Quds forces strengthen their Bahraini cells, which engage in periodic terrorism.
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The last two scenarios have been included to highlight particular subthemes. Aging is a historically new trend, which most social, economic, and political institutions are not constructed to reflect. To avoid bankrupting current social-welfare systems and disadvantaging future generations, nations will need to rethink education, careers, retirement ages, economic growth potential, and numerous other institutions and practices all have taken for granted. It is time for these nations to spend some time thinking about how they are going to manage aging.
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For everyone, there’s concern about increasing inequality. Inequality is a global trend, with developing countries also becoming highly unequal societies. There are numerous factors at play, with the new technologies figuring as one of the main culprits. Digital technologies have not produced the same number of jobs as, for example, the earlier twentieth-century motor industry. Instead, many of the new technologies—automation, artificial intelligence, and robotics—are disrupting both the unskilled and skilled job markets. The biggest returns from the technology breakthroughs are going to the owners of new firms, and a relatively small number of highly skilled personnel in those firms. For the foreseeable future, even if productivity finally kick starts, the new technologies are likely to displace workers faster than they can reboot their skills and find new employment.
Over time, these technologies could be a more significant part of the solution. But, increasingly, experts are looking to specific policies—such as water pricing—and more comprehensive planning to understand complicated sets of tradeoffs involved in allocating available water resources. Water pricing has been shown to be very effective in reducing consumer demand in urban areas, and in pushing suppliers and consumers to recover wasted water through plugging of leaks. According to one estimate, a “staggering 32 billion cubic meters of treated water is lost” in urban areas due to leaking pipes.
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Other regions will also be at heightened risk of conflict to 2035, but will not necessarily involve the major powers. This applies, above all, to the Middle East and neighboring regions. Conflict areas could merge to form one large zone from Morocco to the Hindu Kush, drawing in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Central Asia, and even Iran, if a military strike is launched against its nuclear infrastructure.
However cumbersome, politically unpopular, and ineffective at times, there is little alternative to increased global cooperation if one does not want to see higher risks of conflict and economic degradation. Without some sort of bolstered global governance, the West would end up with less sovereignty in a “dog-eat-dog” world, in which it was increasingly in the minority. But can the United States and the West rise to the challenge of investing in a global-governance system that will not always favor their interests on every issue? Historically, the United States could be especially generous because it was on top of the world in about everything after the Second World War. Europeans came to truly believe in pooling sovereignty and joint governance after centuries of internecine conflict. The tough economic times at home have seen US and European publics become distrustful of overarching multilateral institutions, believing the will of the United States or individual European countries will not be served. It is oftentimes easier for political leaders to fall in with the public mood rather than display leadership that might appear to work against it.
The United States is also seeing major climate-change impacts. The US Navy is increasingly concerned about the viability of its major naval base in the low-lying Hampton Roads area of southern Virginia, which experiences more and more flooding. In the Southwest, rising temperatures and variable rainfall have meant that the threat of forest fires is now yearlong. Forest fires are devastating an increasing swath of the virgin woodlands in the region, forever changing the landscape.
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Preserving and strengthening the international nonproliferation regime (for nuclear weapons and missile technology) requires agreement among the major powers: Russia, the United States, and China. Even if these countries cooperate, however, success is not guaranteed, given the growing number of actors involved in technological development and the increasing international trade in nuclear materials. The risks would be even greater in the absence of major-state cooperation.
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Some biotech advances will almost certainly face public backlash, especially in Western countries. Finding a cure for cancer may be applauded, but the ability of parents to pick and choose traits for their children could be a “bridge too far” for some. The ease with which organisms—potentially including deadly viruses—can be created from DNA building blocks such as BioBricks is already becoming a national-security issue. Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, for example, added gene editing to a list of threats posed by “weapons of mass destruction and proliferation” in his 2021 annual worldwide threat assessment report to the US Congress. While there are efforts within the scientific community to prevent dual-use biotechnology from being misused or falling into the wrong hands, many believe bioterrorism is inevitable. A high-profile bioterrorist attack could prompt a clampdown in further biotech research, forcing scientists to work in more government-controlled settings. This would be a setback, and could slow discoveries in many other non-lethal areas.
For some attackers, cyber warfare offers other advantages that have seldom been the case for most types of warfare: anonymity and low buy-in costs. These attributes favor the employment by disaffected groups and individuals who want to sow mayhem. Thus far, the cyber weapons wielded by criminals and malicious individuals are unsophisticated compared to what state actors can deploy, but this is likely to change.
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In an Ageless World, life expectancy keeps galloping ahead of the conventional domestic structures. Few thought life expectancies would reach the high seventies and eighties, not to mention ninety or so—which it is likely to be in advanced economies by 2035. Key questions include: How to pay for pensions and healthcare programs when increasing proportions of societies are no longer working age and are recipients, not contributors to those programs? Similarly, how to educate workers who may have to end up working fifty-year careers instead of the usual thirty or thirty-five years? The education they would receive in their teens and early twenties could not possibly carry them throughout their careers, not with the rapid rates of technological change. Aging and aged societies also tend to be conservative ones. This was seen in the recent Brexit vote, in which the older one was, the more likely they were to vote for leaving the EU, while the opposite was true the younger one was. A rapidly aging world would favor a more inward, less globalized world. On the other hand, it could also be less likely to go to war. Wars are more likely to be fought when there is a youthful demographic profile.
Use of force to prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons, and cut off terrorists’ access to them, could also occur in an atmosphere of greater cooperation. Depending on the willingness of the major powers and the main regional players to take collective action, more frequent operations of this kind are likely to occur on a multilateral basis, or under the mandate of the UN and/or regional security operations.
Worrisome for future US growth potential has been the drop in the labor-participation rate, from the 67 percent range before the 2008 financial crisis to 62-63 percent in the years since. The labor-participation rate was destined to drop due to a growing numbers of retirees, but much of the current sharp decrease comes from unskilled males in their prime working years—forties and early fifties—dropping out. Additionally, many younger women are not entering or staying in the job market. Global Trends 2030 looked at two scenarios for future US growth—one in which the United States maintained or slightly increased its average 2/5 percent pre-2008 growth rate, or one in which growth would slow to an average of 1/5 percent a year. In the first, there would still be the global economic shift to China. On the other hand, the 2/5 percent average growth would help boost average living standards, engendering a “feel-good” factor, which would make more Americans interested in reengaging with world issues.
My hunch is that the information technologies, and the automation and manufacturing technologies, may get the biggest traction and become the centerpiece of the technology revolutions out to 2035. Every day, there is a report about the greater use of robots. Many Chinese factories are facing a dwindling worker population as China’s aging accelerates. Workers are demanding higher pay and better working conditions.
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Viewed four years later, the situation is anything but comforting. The Syrian civil war has been unimaginably brutal and murderous, with 40 percent of Syria’s population displaced or fleeing the region altogether. In Libya, there could finally be some stability, but only after years of conflict. The lower oil prices, however, present a new challenge, as Libya and many other Middle East producers have overrelied on high oil prices for their government revenues. Iraq looks less and less likely to reestablish a strong state. Even if the ISIS caliphate is eventually defeated—which is highly probable in the next few years—the Kurdish north is increasingly autonomous, while Sunnis are more and more disaffected and likely to join insurgent and terrorist groups. Iraq’s oil-based economy faces the same challenge as Libya and the Gulf states: dwindling revenues for state coffers. Yemen is a truly failed state with renewed ethnic and religious conflict, overpopulation, and a water-scarcity problem of monumental proportions.
With both sides increasingly viewing the Asian regional order as a zero-sum one, there is no obvious solution that does not involve a “loss of face” on one side or the other. The hope would be that greater economic interdependence would increase the cautiousness on both sides. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was sold in the United States as a way of keeping China from making the rules. But if China became an eventual partner, then there would be incentive for the United States and its Asian allies, as well as China, to increase at least economic cooperation. The failure of the TPP to pass the US Congress would not only undermine US creditability in its allies’ minds, but also eliminate a potential opportunity to pursue a joint framework with China. Otherwise, with the increasingly tight military ties between the United States and its allies—and higher military spending as Asia overtakes NATO—the scene is set for a collision between the United States and China.
Like Europe in the nineteenth century, Egypt will have gone through periods of revolution followed by authoritarian reassertion. The Egyptian government can no longer rely on the cash-strapped Gulf regimes for assistance, prompting rulers to even more ruthlessly suppress dissidence. However, there could be a succession of rulers, as some will undoubtedly fall due to riots and rising food prices. With the level of the Nile falling to historically low levels, Egyptian rulers resort to war against Ethiopia, which Cairo accuses of damming more and more water at the Nile’s source for hydropower. A defeat would trigger a new revolution, and much lower standing for the Egyptian military. However, with a society increasingly split between reformers and conservatives, there is no alternative to military rule.
The breakdown of the post-Cold War political and security order is irrevocable. Not only are there new powers—particularly China—that do not share the West’s vision of a liberal order, but Western publics themselves have turned against globalization, which has been the overall megatrend of the past three decades. The geopolitical landscape ahead will be much different. The best case is looking at multipolarity with limited multilateralism. In the worst case, that multipolarity evolves into bipolarity with China, Russia, and their partners pitted against the United States, Europe, Japan, and other allies. In that scenario, conflict would be almost inevitable.
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The financial architecture will also become more regionalized. The central role played by the financial centers of New York and London will also diminish, and a multitiered financial architecture will develop. Following the UK Brexit, those centers’ share in financial intermediation will decrease, as a second pole of global finance forms in the Eurozone. A third pole will develop in East Asia and Southeast Asia.
Iraq has not suffered quite the devastation that Syria has, but the state is increasingly hollow and broken up along ethnic and religious lines. ISIS would be a memory in 2035, but its legacy would live in an endless series of Sunni insurgencies that would be put down by the Shia government in Baghdad, sometimes with the help of the United States. After lengthy negotiations, Turkey settles for a Kurdish state in northern Iraq under its control. Economically, Kurdistan remains highly dependent on Turkey for getting its oil to market, and for imports. Shia-held Baghdad does not recognize Kurdish independence, nor does most of the rest of the international community, which hopes for Iraqi unity. While the United States may keep a hand in, Shia areas become increasingly dependent on Iran’s help to put down the Sunni insurgencies.
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A more multipolar reserve system and regionalized financial architecture should lessen risks and contribute to greater stability. But the large-scale technological innovations—some of which contributed to the 2008 breakdown—will continue, making global finance still volatile. Emerging-market countries with fragmentary regulatory regimes will be particularly prone to suffering financial crises. The aging-population factor also increases risks to public finances. This report anticipates modestly increased volatility, lower than what occurred in the global economy during the 1890s through the 1940s, but higher than in the 1950s and 1960s—more of a continuation of what has been the trend line since the mid-1980s.
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As geopolitical tensions escalate, conflicts will become more likely to spill over into regional nuclear war between second-tier nuclear powers. Regional conflicts that have the risk of turning nuclear can be ranked in probability by region as follows: South Asia, the Far East, India-China, and the Middle East.
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Authoritarians use national sovereignty and the threat of instability to contest any universal legal right by outside groups to assist democratic activists. Russian and Chinese government spokespersons point to the widespread turmoil and humanitarian tragedies caused by US and Western intervention in Libya and Iraq to oust the Muammar Gaddafi and Saddam Hussain regimes. In their minds, Western support and encouragement to democratic activists in Egypt, Syria, and Yemen only further destabilized the region.
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Any conflict would be a defeat for both, even if it is costlier for one side. A defeat could rock China politically and economically, but also hurt the global economy. Other than a knock-out blow, a setback for China would probably see a redoubling of nationalistic fervor. President Xi, or a successor who leads China into a defeat, would undoubtedly lose his position, but the likely result would be a fiercer nationalistic leader taking his place, and a Cold War against the United States and its allies.
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A slowdown, including increasing evidence that China will not meet its level pegging target with Western economies, could undermine the Communist Party’s standing with the Chinese people. For the regime and people, the goal is also linked to their determination to undo the “century of humiliation,” when the Western imperial powers (including Japan) exploited China’s weaknesses in the nineteenth century. It is hard to overestimate the potency of that narrative. In the eyes of many in China, the legitimacy of the Communist Party is tied to the extent that it shows China is equal to or better than the other great powers.
The risk of armed Islamic extremism in the region is the greatest threat to stability out to 2035 (this issue is simultaneously domestic, transnational, and transregional in nature). Islamic armed extremism could take the form of: attacks on secular pro-Western and pro-Russian state regimes; conflict between Sunnis and Shias; and an increase in piracy in the Mediterranean and Red Seas, around the entire African coast, and in the northern Indian Ocean and western Pacific Ocean.
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How prepared are high-income economies for the increased costs of pensions? In the fifty years between 1960 and 2021, public pension expenditures as a percentage of GDP doubled for high-income countries, from 4 to 8 percent. By 2035, they are forecast to grow another 3 percent, at a time of shrinking workforces.
This is more than academic debate. With declining labor polls as a result of aging and lower birth rates, productivity is vital if economic growth is to continue, averting potential decline. Since 2008, there have been few productivity gains in the United States and the West, which is one reason for low wage growth. A longer-term slowdown would constitute a major setback for Western middle classes, who have already suffered decades of wage stagnation. Developing countries have an easier time. Currently, they are well below productivity levels in the United States and the West. If they raise them by copying Western business practices, they can rapidly grow their economies, boosting wage levels.
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The greatest number of these so-called anocracies are in sub- Saharan Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa. Anocracies are unstable and transitory, with “over 50 percent experiencing a major regime change within 5 years and over 70 percent within 10 years. Anocracies are about 3 times more susceptible to autocratic backsliding than full democracies” and about four times more likely than democracies to experience coup plots. They are also more vulnerable to outbreaks of armed societal conflict.
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Moreover, it is not as if traditional US partners—Europe and Japan—are doing much better. Japan and many European countries are aging faster than the United States, eliminating labor-force growth as a driver of future economic growth. Europe’s and Japan’s economic performances have been declining since the 1990s.
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How durable are these preferences for nondemocracy and state control? By 2035, if not sooner (in the case of Venezuela), some of the now-authoritarian states could be liberalized, and the perceived threat posed by Western civil-society NGOs may ease. However, China and Russia are more likely than not to want to dominate their regions. Nationalism and democracy have been shown to be highly compatible. It is not clear that an even more powerful China or India would defer to Western leadership of the global order, even if both sides’ values in other areas begin to converge.
Besides the immense internal unraveling, there are other forces at play in the breakdown of the post-Cold War order. The growing resentment of Western dominance by Russia, China, and other powers has been unappreciated. The crisis in relations between Russia and the West over Ukraine shows the degree to which economic interests and cooperation in international security can be sacrificed for the sake of political, geopolitical, and ideological motives. Virtually any part of the post-Soviet space and surrounding regions, as well as the western part of the Asia-Pacific region and northern part of the Indian Ocean, could become the site of serious competition between the main power centers. The situation is more dangerous than the second half of the Cold War era (mid-1960s to mid-1980s), when tacit “untouchable” geopolitical spheres of influence were very clearly delineated, and other zones were considered not worth the risk of a direct military conflict.
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A window of opportunity may occur in the next few years when the civil war in Syria and Iraq simmers down. Such civil wars usually last six to nine years; 2021 would be the sixth year since conflict in Syria broke out. Such conflicts usually end either in complete victory by one side, or after a stalemate in which it is clear no one side can ever prevail. It seems increasingly clear, looking at the situation from the outside, that neither the Assad regime nor rebel forces can prevail, and only a negotiated settlement is possible. But neither side has yet reached that point. Over time, however, when and if that changes, the outside powers will have a chance to orchestrate a peace that lays the foundations for an eventual recovery. Recoveries from civil wars are typically very slow. In both post-Ta’if Lebanon and post-Dayton Bosnia, there is relative peace but no real economic recovery or political cohesion. The warring parties are still very segregated. Still, however disappointing those peace settlements have turned out, they are better than chronic instability and conflict.
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The situation going forward is fraught with difficulty. It depends upon leadership on both sides threading a slender needle. There are increasing forces on both sides—including a nationalistic Chinese public—that see conflict as inevitable, which is a dangerous leading indicator.
Another key gap was in ideology. This was a recurrent criticism, and one that the authors found difficult to overcome. Certainly, as everyone acknowledged, the world no longer lived in an ideological age like the Cold War, when communism presented a direct challenge to Western market capitalism and democracy. Global Trends 2021 (published in 2008) spent some time delving into state capitalism. The possibility of the return of a caliphate was also addressed, featured as one of the four key scenarios in the Global Trends 2021 volume (published in 2004).
The nuclear deterrent might play a less important role in guaranteeing security in China, France, India, and Russia, following the lead of US and British military policy. If geopolitical competition increases, however, much weaker incentives will exist to move toward nuclear disarmament. The emphasis will shift to cutting-edge, high-precision, long-range offensive and defensive weapons, and to nonnuclear deterrent concepts. At the same time, nuclear weapons might start playing a greater role in military-political relations among the major players and smaller nuclear powers, and also between the new nuclear and threshold countries.
Demographically, the West has, for a long time, been in the minority. What’s more recent is the aging of the Western population (analyzed in chapter 2), which is already occurring in Japan and Europe, beginning to squeeze the availability of resources for anything but health, social security, and interest payments on debt. Unless healthcare becomes far more efficient, the US economy will be overburdened with healthcare and pension costs as the “baby boomer” generation ages.
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